Math A

Intuitive Idea of Probability

We use ratios to show how likely, or unlikely, an outcome might be.  This ratio is called the probability.

For example, the ratio 45/100 represents the number of heads which appeared when a penny was tossed out of 100 tosses.  This ratio is the probability that the toss was heads.

Our ratio for probability can be thought of as:

 

 

Consider: Ratios are most often expressed in the form of a fraction.  Fractions, however, can also be expressed as decimals or percents.  So probabilities may be expressed as fractions, decimals or percents. 

 

As the chart above shows, probabilities range from 0 to 1.  If an event is impossible and will never occur, the probability is 0.  If an event is absolutely certain to occur, the probability is 1.  Otherwise, the value of a probability is between 0 and 1.

 

While probability was originally developed to deal with gaming techniques, it is used today in a wide range of applications.  Even common sayings reflect the concept of probability:

Someone may say "Don't hold your breath" when you are waiting for something to happen.  What is the person implying about the probability?

This statement implies that you may die holding your breath waiting for this event to occur.  Obviously, the probability of the event is extremely low, if not impossible.

 

 

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Roberts